While we're not on the mobile path just yet, I'm hoping that a Top Trend list for the end of next year will have <a href="http://www.maneno.org">Maneno</a>.  We're currently just web-based, but will be adding in a strong mobile component, which should be using Ken's system, later in the year.  We're very aware that for an application for Africa to suceed, it has to have a solid mobile element that replicates the functions of a site in a to-go format.
Good list though.  Cheers-miquel<a href="http://www.maneno.org">Maneno</a>

Ergh, pardon the links...  I didn't realize how Change's system read HTML...

Hi Ken,

Thanks so much for your post - I've updated the further reading list to include a link to Josh's blog. I agree that these things will really take off in the hands of specific users in discreet contexts.

Miquel, thanks for your contributions as well. I'll keep my eye on Maneno as it develops!

There are a few important points on the convergence of mobile technology and social entrepreneurship that need to be brought up:

While the iPhone is a great device and should be commended for the progress it has brought to the global communications industry, at the end of the day it is an expensive device that will remain out of reach for most of the world. However, one aspect of the iPhone that I find to be very interesting is the iPhone has become a popular communications tool in low income households across the US. Instead of buying computers and paying for traditional internet access, in some cases people are purchasing iPhones. "Ownership of the iPhone rose 48 percent from June 1 to the end of August among households earning between $25,000 and $50,000 a year, compared to 21 percent overall, the study showed." (Comscore study, source: http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,446190,00.html)

I believe that some of the most important developments in the mobile technology sector in 2009 will be related to the Android platform. "The unveiling of the Android platform on 5 November 2007 was announced with the founding of the Open Handset Alliance, a consortium of 47 hardware, software, and telecom companies devoted to advancing open standard for mobile devices." (source: wikipedia) Android is an open platform, that allows open source development across multiple hardware devices. The nature of this open platform will allow developing countries to access global information services (mainly, the internet) in much more cost effective and powerful ways. In 2009, the Android platform will create many tools that people around the world will be able to use to advance sustainable development, poverty reduction, and the other causes of our times.

Hi Nathaniel,

Your top trends posts are full of good stuff, keep it coming. You briefly make the prediction that the health sector will lead with mobiles in 2009, and I wanted to chime in briefly to second that opinion.

Organizations like Partners in Health pioneered a model for mobile medical care, where the health care workers themselves are mobile and going to the patients homes. They showed that it is way more effective to bring care into the homes of patients, especially in vulnerable communities. There are now very many clinics/organizations that use the model that emphasizes community health workers. They are really ripe for being helped out with mobile communication tools - the hardest part of adapting to new technology is changing organizational/behavioral practices, and I think organizations that have alread mobilized care will find it easier to mobilize the technology they use to communicate.

cheers
Isaac

Awesome post!
I don't know what I'd do without my BrickBerry.

Nate -- health is definitely the leader in mobile deployment.  For any of the apps and implementations in the field to scale to go beyond small rural hospitals, we need a lot more, though.  And it's not tech, it's political will, resources, and lcoal, in-country, appropriate tech and participatory design-- all of which are only now beginning.  I sure hope that we are not satisfied with a few hospitals --  that would be a bad failure for 2009. 

What is needed is to systematically and thoughtfully, with local leadership, move from disparate pilot/tiny-scale efforts to those that are connected and work in tandem with a national health infrastructure (for supply chains, for patient telemedicine, for medical records management) that take advantage of economies of scale, a growing 3G infrastructure, an influx of donor interest, and a spike in senior local leadership getting on the mobile bandwagon -- such as in Ghana and Mozambique, for example, where the health ministries AND the key carrier are taking an active interest in exploring how mobiles can be used in health management and delivery.   In other words, this field is getting serious and is growing up - and it's about time.

My two predictions and one plea for 2009 are thus:
1. Health will see the greatest influx of money and scale in mobile deopployment with health ministries in certain countries taking an active role, together with development organizations to roll out much more robust solutions and large-scale implementations. 
2. Mobile content will be a greater part of the discussion -- the tech is largely there or will be there but we have not had a serious conversation about what is actually delivered over mobiles.  We are keen on a much more substantive discussion about that.
3. If we are not careful, we will see the very same problem that have plagued the ICT for dev field -- pro-poor solutions developed in the West that have little cultural, behavioural, or local support or context.  There is virtually no discussion about local solutions that make sense in a given country, no discussion or systematic attemps by donor or Western organizations about local leadership and participation in design and deployment, and few systems for developing and scaling local, indigenous solutions that are promising.  We need to do better, much better here or we are bound to repeat the telecentre-failures of the past -- projects and apps that are not locally developed, not scaleable, have no users (as we are seeing already with quite a few of the much-hyped mobile apps out there) that ultimately draw resources and attention away from what really works in a given region or country. 

Katrin

Although mobile apps are stunning for range of capability and utilty and the cell phone has become the Swiss Army knife of the 21st century, it is important to remember that technology can be used for good or not-so-good. Think Mubai: ten young men on a twisted mission armed with GPS, cell phones and black market SIM cards. Or crowdsourcing-turned-"human flesh searching" in China (http://www.economist.com/world/asia/displaystory.cfm?story_id=12342705&fsrc=rss). Or attempts to control and censor press freedoms, web-based and otherwise (http://trackerblog.instedd.org/2008/12/20/117/). Malaria-researcher Bill Breiger wonders whether Kenya's proposed draconian "Communications Amendment Bill" will affect the accuracy of malaria reporting (http://www.malariafreefuture.org/blog/?p=606.)

As my colleague at InSTEDD, Ed Jezierski wrote in a recent post, "Phones don't change the world, people do" (http://edjez.instedd.org/2008/12/phones-dont-change-world-people-do.html)

I don't mean to rain on the parade. I just want to make sure that we're prepared with some umbrellas. To the trends of 2009, let's add some protections that can help ensure the potential of mobile technologies to improve lives. Thoughts?

Nathaniel -- Thanks for putting this revolutionary topic on the table for discussion.

The path to affordable SMS services opened up Nov. 4 with the FCC's 5-0 vote to approve unlicensed, mobile use of the vacant TV channels -- the so-called 'white spaces.' 

Check out:  "Local Network Stimulus:  A 'Green' Broadband Policy" in the Technology category of Change.org.

Wally Bowen
Asheville, N.C.

NathanielGreat thoughts on what seems set to be one of the blockbuster issues for not only 2009, but years beyond. I've also appreciated the many comments here (Hi Katrin!), and will add a couple more that build on whats already been stated.

* Its clear we're at the thinnest edge of the mobile wedge - it will be an extremely interesting few years, where we see consolidation, some federation of orgs & apps & functionality, and hopefully real usefulness for marginalized communities
* It will be very interesting to see how the area of usefulness (particularly among the BOP) intersects with the concept of financial sustainability. Mobile initiatives can be quite affordable (even when operating at a loss), but its fascinating to see this industry tackle approaches that come closer to breaking even or better. There is much work to be done with the variety of options and possibilities here, and it wont all be good - but the experimentation and learnings will be extremely valuable to the industry as a whole, and in the end, providing value to users in terms of lowering costs of delivery

* I'm looking forward to seeing how we move from exclusively "project based initiatives" - where the usefulness of SMS itself is under scrutiny within a project context - to "platform based initiatives" - where the effectiveness of various existing and emerging platforms and SMS application providers from an enterprise perspective becomes a focus

* As Katrin pointed out - partner-centric development of platforms, applications and methodologies is a must. I'm keen to see the results of the early-adopter developer projects in this space

* Finally, public-private partnerships will be vital to the development of a vibrant industry. Its very encouraging to see some of these already flourishing - I strongly believe this will continue, encouraging a win-win-win mentality to these initiatives

There's a lot to be excited about & hopeful for - thats definitely why I'm focused on this space. 

Gavin White
CEO, RESDIDA
www.resdida.com